This is not the year of the Blue Jays. Even though they played nearly 90 wins in the 2020-23 seasons, things fell apart here in 2024. They are 44-52, which puts them 9.5 games out of a playoff spot with several teams blocking their path. Unless they end their 11-game winning streak between now and the deadline, they will be looking to sell in the coming weeks.
Crazier things have happened but the odds are against them. The Playoff Odds on FanGraphs gives them a 2% chance as a surprise postseason berth while the PECOTA Rankings at Baseball Prospectus are more optimistic at 3.9%.
A recent report suggested that the Jays are willing to deal with rental players but they could stop there. Some have floating players like Bo Bichette again Vladimir Guerrero Jr. like potential trades, each would be manageable through the 2025 season, but general manager Ross Atkins appeared to skip that. Last month, he said trading these people “doesn't make sense to us.”
All in all, it seems that the club is hoping to compete again in 2025. That leaves six players who can be traded between now and the July 30 deadline, each of them. Justin Turner, Kevin Kiermaier, Danny Jansen, Yusei Kikuchi, I'm Garcia again Trevor Richards are slated for the open market at the end of the season. Naturally, each player will have a different trade value based on their skill level but also their contract.
One question the front office will need to answer is whether they will prioritize shedding salaries and get under the competitive balance tax or focus more on prospective returns, spending some money to balance the scale that way. The Mets demonstrated the latter approach last year, as they swallowed most of the money both were owed Max Scherzer again Justin Verlander to bring back big prospect hauls.
Both Roster Resource and Cot's Baseball contracts are very close to matching Toronto's current CBT number. RR has just over $247MM and Cot is the highest at $250MM. Those are just estimates but they're probably pretty close, so the Jays would have to shell out $10-15MM to get under the $237MM minimum tax cap.
They won't be able to deduct any of the player's full salary from their CBT number since the season is already more than halfway through, but they can deduct parts. For example, if a player has a $20MM CBT hit and is traded mid-season, $10MM of that will stay on the books of the trading club and the other half will go to the buying club. That means there is no financial consideration involved in the deal.
It's also worth pointing out that a player's CBT cap is based on the average annual value of their contract, not salary. The baseball season is 187 days long and there are 73 days left, about 39%. At the deadline, that would be 61 days or 32.6%. Let's take a rough breakdown of where those six rental players are:
- Turner: $13MM CBT hit for the year, $5.07MM left today, $4.24MM at deadline
- Kikuchi: $12MM, $4.68MM, $3.91MM
- Kiermaier: $10.5MM, $4.1MM, $3.42MM
- Garcia: $6MM, $2.34MM, $1.96MM
- Jansen, $5.2MM, $2.03MM, $1.7MM
- Richards: $2.15MM, $839K, $700K
As of today, those six players combined for an estimated CBT hit of $19.06MM, that number was revised down to $15.93MM at the deadline. Although it would be difficult, it is possible that they could not be taxed this year.
Doing so would bring some benefits, although the tax savings would be small. The Jays paid their taxes for the first time last year and are currently scrambling to pay their second. That only comes with a 30% tax rate, which means they are currently slated to pay $3-4MM in taxes.
That's a drop in the bucket for a big playing group but there will be other relegation disputes. If the Jays pay taxes this year and in 2025, they will pay a third next year, which will reduce their tax rate to 50%. Although dancing below the line this year will reset their status and allow them to enter 2025 as a “primary” payment and have a base rate of 20%. That sounds important but still results in little tax savings. For example, going $30MM over the basic limit next year will result in a tax bill of $6MM or $15MM, depending on whether they pay the 20% or 50% rate.
Perhaps more importantly, if they sign a player in the offseason who rejects a qualifying offer, they will face a small penalty for tax evasion. The club paying the tax gives up $1MM in international bonus pool space and its second and fifth top picks in the next draft when it signs a QO player. Tax avoidance turns out to be only $500K in bonus money and a second top pick.
They will also increase their earnings if the player rejects the QO and signs elsewhere. Taxpayers get a pick after the fourth round if a QO player signs elsewhere, while the third is triggered if they avoid the tax. The Jays have a few potential QO candidates in Jansen and Kikuchi but QO considerations could be an issue if they are traded.
But that being said, the Jays can just forget about the tax and focus on getting the best prospects they can. The Cubs are reportedly interested in Jansen but would be willing to give up a better deal while the Jays keep their money on the books. The Cubs seem to want to avoid the tax themselves and Roster Resource has just under $234MM. They have a well-maintained farm system and may rely on cashing out from that, instead of taking money at the deadline. It could be the same for other teams, like the Padres. Roster Resource has them at $225MM and they seem to want to stay under the tax. They need to pitch and may be interested in someone like Kikuchi, but may not want to take his money / CBT hit.
Other teams will be in the lead. A team like the Tigers, for example, could be looking for more upsets. If they were to ask about Turner, they would probably choose to take the money and not give up the future talent. They are nowhere near the tax line and their real income is below their past spending levels. With seven games left in the playoffs, they may be willing to take a small investment to shore up their club for a long postseason push, instead of giving up young players and hurting themselves in future seasons.
What the Jays can ultimately do will depend on what kind of offers come their way, as they are not operating in a vacuum. They already know that no team is willing to take Kiermaier's entire contract, as they made him available for free when he was fired recently and they couldn't find anyone to take it. Maybe someone would be interested in him as a speedy, defensive fourth baseman if the Jays eat up part of his deal, but getting the rest of his contract off the books doesn't seem to be an option.
Depending on the circumstances of the trading partners, they may need to strike a balance, with some deals focused on cost savings and others on maximizing return on talent. If that leaves them with hair over the tax line, they can consider moving players who are not hiring, with Chad Green arguably the best option out there. He is under contract through 2025 but has a $10.5MM CBT hit, the same as Kiermaier's, giving the Jays a chance to scrape a few more million off their CBT number. Doing so will hurt their 2025 bullpen but they may feel they can easily replace Green's production with an offseason signing. With bullpen help often needed at the deadline, Green should earn interest.
Boys love it George Springer, Chris Bassitt again Kevin Gausman all have CBT hits of $21MM or more. The Jays may try to find those, but Springer is 34 years old and having a rough season, which could dampen interest. Dealing with Bassitt or Gausman would hurt next year's rotation, which might be the club's best argument for trying to contend again in 2025, as they could enter the offseason with four players of Gausman, Bassitt, José Berríos again Yariel Rodríguez on paper.
Isiah Kiner-Falefa would be another option as he is under contract through 2025 and has a $7.5MM CBT cap hit. He is having the best season of his life but has been on the injured list since the beginning of this month because of his left knee. He can still be traded while in IL but his health status will affect his trade value.
Ultimately, there are a lot of moving parts here, which is part of the reason why the Jays will be an interesting club to watch in the coming weeks. Most of the trades at this year's deadline will be focused on the long term, as clubs like the White Sox and Marlins are in bad shape right now. That will simplify their priorities at the deadline, as they will simply look to acquire as much future talent as possible.
But the Blue Jays will likely be balancing several different concerns. They will be looking to shed some talent, but not in a way that will seriously hurt their chances of competing again next year. They can focus on acquiring as much talent as possible right now or they can bundle under the tax line, giving them more freedom to acquire talent in the offseason. One way or another, Atkins and his team will be looking to turn a losing season into something that can help them down the stretch, although there are a number of different ways they could try to accomplish that.
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