Key Highlights:
- In the last two games, Nembhard averaged 28 PPG and 9.5 APG at 68% the truth shooting and 27.1% usage. Throughout the playoffs (17 games), he averaged 14.9 PPG and 5.5 APG on 65.4% true shooting and 17.7% usage.
- Nembhard combines a refined driving game with good passing, midrange touch, and perimeter defense.
- Nembhard is not the offensive engine that Brunson or Haliburton are, but he is a much better defender than either of them.
After going down 2-0 to the Boston Celtics, the season of the Indiana Pacers looked cooked, especially after the appearance of Tyrese Haliburton – the team's team. All-NBA showman – it can be down to count Head on.
After two games, it appeared that the clouds were dark indeed signal of an incoming storm, the Pacers dropped Games 3 and 4 en route to a series sweep. However, those games were not tournaments. The Pacers lost each game by three points, holding leads deep into the fourth quarter of both contests. They are always competitive despite not having their best player. But how?
Two words: Andrew Nembhard. After losing his All-NBA teammate, the second year combo guard stepped up for the event, averaging 28 PPG and 9.5 APG at 68% the truth shooting and 27.1% usage.
This is a two-game hitting streak, coupled with his impressive start to the postseason (14.9 PPG and 5.5 APG on 65.4% the truth shooting and usage of 17.7% in 17 games), there are many people dreaming about Nembhard's future. So, how good can Nembhard really be?
Flawless goal scorer with fancy footwork
The strongest part of Nembhard's arsenal is his driving game. During the regular season, he ranked in the 83rd percentile in drive volume and the 60th percentile in drive efficiency (via the Thinking Basketball database). And in the playoffs, he increased his efficiency to the point where he now sits at 82 percent on true shooting on drives.
However, numbers alone do not tell the whole story about Nembhard. To really capture his descent glory, you need to spend some time with the tape. There, you will see a masterclass in footwork, stride length, changes of pace, body control, and body.
Now, Nembhard's drive game isn't perfect. He relies heavily on his right hand, lacks explosiveness at the rim, and doesn't always get to the basket before finishing (29th percentile in rim attempts on 75 possessions, each with Dunks & Threes). But his intelligence and strength enable him to overcome these obstacles and turn what should be a weakness into his greatest strength.
Since he can't pressure the paint like Ja Morant, Nembhard often has to rely on his midrange game to get the job done. Fortunately for Nembhard, he is an elite midrange scorer – ranking in the 79th percentile in midrange volume and 92nd percentile in midrange efficiency during the regular season.
[Sidebar #1: Nembhard is particularly adept in the short midrange. During the regular season, he placed in the 84th percentile in short midrange frequency and 76th percentile in short midrange accuracy among combo guards, per Cleaning the Glass.]
Nembhard's 3-point shooting isn't cut and dry. In the playoffs, he hit 48.3% of his three-point attempts. That's an impressive feat, but if history is any indication, it's not a very sustainable one. In his two NBA seasons and four college seasons, Nembhard attempted a combined 871 3-point shots. During that time, he converted on only 34.8% of those attempts.
Can Nembhard compound his hot streak into a better 3 percent? His average percentage shows he certainly has that touch. But if he can't, that has a big impact on his scoring.
If he's not going to start getting to the rim a lot or become an impressive perimeter shooter, Nembhard will need to get better at free throw attempts (14 percent of every 75 free throw attempts this season). His great body control and convincing pump fake should give him the edge here, but for now, it's a wait and see mode. Even during his playoff run, Nembhard averaged only 1.8 free throws per 75 (just 0.7 more free throw attempts than he had in the regular season).
A Great Passer, But No Haliburton
Despite spending a big episode of the season plays by waiting near Haliburton, Nembhard more ran a point high school and college. Because of that, he it was able to change automatically in the football role in Games 3 and 4 (which is why his 19 came in those two games).
As of course with his driving game, the tape is very kind to Nembhard's success. It shows his ability to quickly identify post discrepancies (first clip in the montage below), push the pace with forward passes (second clip), sprinkle kickouts to outside shooters (third), hit inside passes for layup passes (fourth), and beam jumps after that. in the right way learning where help comes from (fifth).
Still, Nembhard's passing/playmaking skills shouldn't be put into a special category. From time to time, his instincts and feelings fail him, which may cause him to miss his turn.
Take this piece, for example. Nembhard made the right decision by beating Turner on the roll. However, he should have taken an extra drive to get Xavier Tillman, the linebacker on the play, to continue committing to his drive. This would make it difficult for Tillman to swing back to Turner and the Boston big would be less likely to end the game.
These are subtle they are caught with metrics like Ben Taylor's Pass Rate statistics (average of a for the player ability to transfer i 'probably' 1-10 scale). This season, Nembhard was at 82 percent in Passer Rating. That's it admirable finish, but he is far from his colleaguesi mentioned above Haliburtonwho placed 100 percent in that category.
Perimeter Pitbull
While Nembhard may not be the offensive juggernaut that his running backcourt is, Nembhard helps with his contributions on the defensive side of the ball. He is a solid defensive player (72nd percentile in steal rate) with solid size (6'4) and a solid understanding of defensive schemes and fundamentals. Overall, Defensive Estimated Plus-Minus (which is, for my money, the single best defensive metric) has him in the 88th percentile defense this season.
[Sidebar #2: As a team, the Pacers defense is 4.4 points stingier per 100 possessions when Nembhard is on the floor than when he is on the bench (84th percentile).]
While single-number metrics aren't perfect, I think DEF EPM does a good job of measuring Nembhard's defensive value. Nembhard is a very good defender, but not an All-Defensive caliber (like Alex Caruso or Derrick White).
We saw this against the New York Knicks in the conference semifinals when, as it happens, Jalen Brunson gave him the business time after time. According to NBA.com matchup data, Brunson was 26 of 39 (66.7%) on field goal attempts when Nembhard was his primary defender.
To be fair, Brunson gives a lot of people business. So, we won't use that as much disparagement to his ability as a defender. But what bothers him the most is his size. Earlier, we said that you have a fixed size of the area. That was a deliberate choice of words. The Nembhard size of the guard is solid but not huge. And given his status as a guard, that means he's prone to attacks from big wings/forwards. Like this bulldoze from Jaylen Brown in Game 4:
Is Nembhard The Next Brunson?
Now that we have a good understanding of Nembhard's game, let's go back to the original question: can Nembhard explode in the same way that Brunson has over the past two years?
First, I should say why I'm comparing the two directly. Both are guards who have spent three or more years in college. Both played at prestigious schools that gave them plenty of opportunities to play in the big games (Brunson at Villanova, Nembhard at Florida, then Gonzaga). Their “older” ages (Brunson 21, and Nembhard 22) coming out of college hurt their draft status, resulting in both being selected early in the second round. Finally, both are high-brained players who depend on their cunning and intelligence to succeed.
As we explained above, Nembhard has a ways to go before he can hope to be the offensive engine that Brunson (0r Haliburton) is. But he also provides value on the other side of the ball that far exceeds anything Brunson (or Haliburton, too) has to offer.
Moving forward, areas to watch for Nembhard will be his passing/decision making, rim/3-point shooting, free throw draw, and usage. Can Nembhard step up as a ball creator with more repetitions? Will he learn to get to the rim more often or convert his 3-pointers at a higher percentage? If not, can he manipulate the game in a way that will get him more shots at the charity stripe? And if his usage increases, can Nembhard maintain decent efficiency and a good defensive effort?
To be honest, I don't have a straight answer to all these questions. If I did, I would sell the information to the highest bidder in the front office. What I can say, though, is that Nembhard's brilliant playoff brilliance, high skill level, and unique two-way ceiling as a floor general give him a real chance to one day blossom into an All-Star caliber player.
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