We're back today with NBA playoff basketball featuring some of our favorite matchups here at Basketball Forever. With the help of advanced simulations and machine learning, our Basketball Forever bot has used thousands of simulations from every game to intelligently identify our best playoff player bets for tonight's slate.
1. KARL-ANTHONY TOWNS OVER 2.5 3 POINTS MADE (+145)
Odds: +145
Probability: 56.3%
Assumptions: 3.1
Limit: 15.4%
Game: Mavericks vs Timberwolves (8:30PM EST)
Our Basketball Forever betting bot has identified the best NBA player prop bets in today's NBA matchups. The best player bet happens on Mavericks vs Timberwolves, and Karl-Anthony Towns shows value in the prop market with more than 3 points. Our model has dropped Karl-Anthony Towns Over 2.5 3-Pointers Made as the best player bet today. Throughout the 23/24 postseason, KAT managed to score 1.9 3-pointers per game. In Game 4 of the series, KAT stepped up, going 9/13 on FG and 4/5 on 3-point shots. Our model suspects that KAT will release the same this evening.
Our model recommends placing a wager Karl-Anthony Towns Over 2.5 3-Pointers Made of +145 odds and attractive 15.4% limit by Fanduel Sportsbook, making this our best player bet of the day.
2. KYRIE IRVING OVER 2.5 3 POINTERS MADE (+110)
Probability: +110
Probability: 57.3%
Assumptions: 3.2
Limit: 9.7%
Game: Mavericks vs Timberwolves (8:30PM EST)
According to our model, one of the best player prop bets on today's playoff slate is in the Mavericks vs Timberwolves game, with Kyrie Irving showing value in the 3-point prop market. Irving averaged 3 3-pointers per game on the season, averaging 2.6 3pts per game in 23/24 postseason games. With WCF, Kyrie managed to average 2.0 3-pointers per game hitting 1/3/4/0 in his last four matchups. After getting one start in the last three, our Model believes that Irving will step up tonight, open to easy dishes from Luke. The Basketball Forever bot bot suspects that Irving will play much better tonight and recommends placing a bet on Kyrie Irving Over 2.5 3-Pointers Made.
The Basketball Forever betting bot recommends placing a wager Kyrie Irving Over 2.5 3-Pointers Madewith 9.7% limit of +110 exceptions available at Draftkings Sportsbook.
3. KYRIE IRVING OVER 23.5 POINTS (+100)
Probability: +100
Probability: 59.5%
Rating: 28.2
Limit: 9.5%
Game: Mavericks vs Timberwolves (8:30PM EST)
The next best NBA player bet our betting bot recommends to play comes in the Mavericks vs Timberwolves game, Kyrie Irving showing value in the over points prop market.
Throughout the 23/24 season Irving managed to average 25.6 points per game, our model projects him to score 28.2 points in tonight's game. All last season, Irving managed to average 22 points in 40 minutes per game. As mentioned in the post above, with Irving having a below average scoring game in the last matchup, our model suspects he will be able to show up tonight, score from the arc, midrange, and drive to the basket. With an average of 28.2 points, our Basketball Forever betting bot recommends placing a bet on Kyrie's over points prop.
Basketball Forever betting bot predicts Kyrie Irving Over 23.5 Points Scored in tonight's game, which gives us i 9.5% limit you have +100 possibilities currently available at Draftkings Sportsbook.
4. LUKA DONCIC OVER 30.5 POINTS SCORED (-102)
Probability: -102
Probability: 57.6%
Rating: 34.2
Edge: 7.1%
Game: Mavericks vs Timberwolves (8PM EST)
According to our model, the best final NBA player bet tonight includes Luka Doncic in the Mavericks vs Timberwolves matchup. Our betting bot has priced Luka Doncic Over 30.5 Points Scored.
During the 2023/24 season Doncic averaged 28.3 points per game, averaging 31.5 PPG against the Timberwolves in the Western Conference finals. In the last four postseason games he has played, he has scored 28/33/32/33 points respectively, beating the streak in 3/4 games. Our Basketball Forever betting bot predicts that as both Kyrie and Luka run the offense, they will be able to play more give and go, leading to points.
Our Basketball Forever betting bot highly recommends betting Luka Doncic Scored Over 30.5 Pointswith the findings 7.1% limit again -102 possibilities at Draftkings Sportsbook.
What is the Edge in NBA Betting?
The edge occurs when Dimers.com's prediction model projects the event to be higher than the best odds available through US Sportsbooks. Basically, it means that the Dimers/Basketball Forever NBA model is a project where betting has a better chance of making money than sportsbooks. That's why the higher the edge, the better for you.
Although an edge does not guarantee a win, it is consistently a high pick on the edge of the bet it can increase your chances of becoming a profitable bet in the long run. This is an important aspect of successful sports betting.
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How to join DraftKings Sportsbook
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DraftKings Sportsbook is available in the following states: AZ, CO, CT, IA, IL, IN, KS, KY, LA, MA, MD, MI, NJ, NY, OH, PA, TN, VA, VT, WV, and WY .
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